The Spread

Was the forecast right for Boston on Sat Sep 5?

Boston, Massachusetts · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the BOS observations

13 days out, 4 models put Boston's Sat Sep 5 high anywhere from 66° to 77°; by the final call the field had settled to a median of 70°. The day verified at 73° against the BOS observations — drizzle.

UKMO landed closest, off by 1.3°. GFS ran 4° cold.

13 days out the models said 66–77; it hit 73. UKMO led (off 1.3°F); GFS ran 4°F cold.
The shareable card for this receipt — what this page looks like pasted into a thread.

What every model said, at every lead

Daily-high calls for Sat Sep 5 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Boston scoreboard shows them, labelled.

Lead AIFSAIGFSECMWFGEMGFSICONUKMO Range
15d · 2026-08-21 77° 68° 68–77°
14d · 2026-08-22 82° 74° 66° 66–82°
13d · 2026-08-23 71° 66° 76° 77° 66–77°
12d · 2026-08-24 75° 74° 68° 65° 65–75°
11d · 2026-08-25 87° 66° 85° 66° 66–87°
10d · 2026-08-26 74° 75° 73° 66° 66–75°
9d · 2026-08-27 72° 82° 72° 64° 64–82°
8d · 2026-08-28 77° 72° 72° 76° 70° 70–77°
7d · 2026-08-29 69° 69° 71° 74° 78° 69–78°
6d · 2026-08-30 69° 75° 66° 68° 70° 78° 66–78°
5d · 2026-08-31 70° 68° 68° 70° 73° 70° 72° 68–73°
4d · 2026-09-01 74° 74° 71° 69° 70° 74° 79° 69–79°
3d · 2026-09-02 69° 68° 69° 75° 70° 71° 76° 68–76°
2d · 2026-09-03 70° 69° 70° 74° 69° 72° 74° 69–74°
1d · 2026-09-04 69° 69° 69° 72° 70° 72° 75° 69–75°
0d · 2026-09-05 70° 70° 69° 72° 69° 71° 74° 69–74°
actual 73°

Read it honestly

This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Boston — or every city The Spread scores.

Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the BOS observations. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.