Was the forecast right for Boston on Tue Aug 25?
Boston, Massachusetts · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the BOS observations
6 days out, 7 models put Boston's Tue Aug 25 high anywhere from 75° to 81°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 79°. The day verified at 81° against the BOS observations — drizzle.
ICON landed closest, off by 1.1°. AIFS ran 4° cool.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Tue Aug 25 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Boston scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6d · 2026-08-19 | 76° | 77° | 77° | 76° | 75° | 80° | 81° | 75–81° |
| 5d · 2026-08-20 | 77° | 78° | 78° | 77° | 80° | 77° | 80° | 77–80° |
| 4d · 2026-08-21 | 75° | 77° | 76° | 76° | 77° | 76° | 79° | 75–79° |
| 3d · 2026-08-22 | 76° | 77° | 76° | 80° | 77° | 80° | 82° | 76–82° |
| 2d · 2026-08-23 | 76° | 80° | 76° | 80° | 80° | 80° | 79° | 76–80° |
| 1d · 2026-08-24 | 77° | 79° | 78° | 83° | 78° | 80° | 80° | 77–83° |
| actual | 81° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Boston — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the BOS observations. The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.