Was the forecast right for Berlin on Sun Oct 25?
Berlin, State of Berlin · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the EDDB observations
14 days out, 4 models put Berlin's Sun Oct 25 high anywhere from 46° to 55°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 53°. The day verified at 56° against the EDDB observations, with 0.33 in of precipitation — rain.
ECMWF landed closest, off by 1.1°. AIFS ran 5° cool.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Sun Oct 25 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Berlin scoreboard shows them, labeled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-10-10 | — | 49° | — | — | 62° | — | — | 49–62° |
| 14d · 2026-10-11 | 53° | 46° | 55° | — | 49° | — | — | 46–55° |
| 13d · 2026-10-12 | 46° | 53° | 48° | — | 56° | — | — | 46–56° |
| 12d · 2026-10-13 | — | 49° | 52° | — | 60° | — | — | 49–60° |
| 11d · 2026-10-14 | 52° | 56° | 59° | — | 60° | — | — | 52–60° |
| 10d · 2026-10-15 | 59° | 55° | 53° | — | 58° | — | — | 53–59° |
| 9d · 2026-10-16 | 56° | 57° | 57° | 57° | 56° | — | — | 56–57° |
| 8d · 2026-10-17 | 51° | 58° | 49° | 56° | 55° | — | — | 49–58° |
| 7d · 2026-10-18 | 50° | 56° | 50° | 57° | 51° | — | — | 50–57° |
| 6d · 2026-10-19 | 49° | 56° | 49° | 53° | 56° | 57° | 54° | 49–57° |
| 5d · 2026-10-20 | 53° | 55° | 53° | 54° | 56° | 50° | 54° | 50–56° |
| 4d · 2026-10-21 | 55° | 50° | 54° | 50° | 53° | 50° | 54° | 50–55° |
| 3d · 2026-10-22 | 54° | 53° | 56° | 53° | 51° | 57° | 54° | 51–57° |
| 2d · 2026-10-23 | 53° | 52° | 54° | 52° | 51° | 55° | 53° | 51–55° |
| 1d · 2026-10-24 | 51° | 53° | 55° | 53° | 52° | 57° | 54° | 51–57° |
| actual | 56° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Berlin — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the EDDB observations. The actual values are the ones in hand when this day was verified, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; verified days exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.