Was the forecast right for Berlin on Thu Oct 15?
Berlin, State of Berlin · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the EDDB observations
14 days out, 4 models put Berlin's Thu Oct 15 high anywhere from 48° to 64°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 60°. The day verified at 62° against the EDDB observations — cloudy.
GFS landed closest, off by 0.5°. ECMWF ran 2° cool.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Thu Oct 15 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Berlin scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-09-30 | — | 51° | — | — | 61° | — | — | 51–61° |
| 14d · 2026-10-01 | 55° | 57° | 64° | — | 48° | — | — | 48–64° |
| 13d · 2026-10-02 | 56° | 53° | 62° | — | 66° | — | — | 53–66° |
| 12d · 2026-10-03 | 62° | 60° | 63° | — | 72° | — | — | 60–72° |
| 11d · 2026-10-04 | 62° | 60° | 53° | — | 48° | — | — | 48–62° |
| 10d · 2026-10-05 | 68° | 58° | 66° | — | 56° | — | — | 56–68° |
| 9d · 2026-10-06 | 65° | 60° | 66° | 62° | 53° | — | — | 53–66° |
| 8d · 2026-10-07 | 64° | 56° | 56° | 64° | 58° | — | — | 56–64° |
| 7d · 2026-10-08 | 57° | 65° | 61° | 63° | 66° | — | — | 57–66° |
| 6d · 2026-10-09 | 60° | 65° | 61° | 68° | 68° | 66° | 65° | 60–68° |
| 5d · 2026-10-10 | 57° | 57° | 63° | 68° | 64° | 62° | 67° | 57–68° |
| 4d · 2026-10-11 | 63° | 58° | 62° | 62° | 61° | 63° | 61° | 58–63° |
| 3d · 2026-10-12 | 63° | 58° | 59° | 62° | 61° | 61° | 59° | 58–63° |
| 2d · 2026-10-13 | — | 59° | 57° | 62° | 61° | 60° | 61° | 57–62° |
| 1d · 2026-10-14 | 60° | 60° | 60° | 62° | 62° | 60° | 61° | 60–62° |
| actual | 62° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Berlin — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the EDDB observations. The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.