Was the forecast right for Berlin on Fri Oct 9?
Berlin, State of Berlin · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the EDDB observations
14 days out, 4 models put Berlin's Fri Oct 9 high anywhere from 58° to 68°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 56°. The day verified at 59° against the EDDB observations, with 0.07 in of precipitation — drizzle.
UKMO landed closest, off by 1.2°. AIGFS ran 4° cool.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Fri Oct 9 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Berlin scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-09-24 | — | 62° | — | — | 72° | — | — | 62–72° |
| 14d · 2026-09-25 | 68° | 61° | 58° | — | 64° | — | — | 58–68° |
| 13d · 2026-09-26 | 62° | 66° | 54° | — | 70° | — | — | 54–70° |
| 12d · 2026-09-27 | 67° | 60° | 66° | — | 65° | — | — | 60–67° |
| 11d · 2026-09-28 | 68° | 65° | 55° | — | 72° | — | — | 55–72° |
| 10d · 2026-09-29 | 64° | 60° | 52° | — | 57° | — | — | 52–64° |
| 9d · 2026-09-30 | 57° | 58° | 54° | 57° | 55° | — | — | 54–58° |
| 8d · 2026-10-01 | 53° | 54° | 60° | 55° | 58° | — | — | 53–60° |
| 7d · 2026-10-02 | 55° | 57° | 57° | 58° | 57° | — | — | 55–58° |
| 6d · 2026-10-03 | 56° | 55° | 62° | 55° | 61° | 58° | 56° | 55–62° |
| 5d · 2026-10-04 | 55° | 55° | 56° | 53° | 58° | 58° | 56° | 53–58° |
| 4d · 2026-10-05 | 55° | 56° | 57° | 54° | 55° | 54° | 58° | 54–58° |
| 3d · 2026-10-06 | 57° | 55° | 57° | 57° | 57° | 54° | 58° | 54–58° |
| 2d · 2026-10-07 | 56° | 57° | 56° | 58° | 58° | 56° | 59° | 56–59° |
| 1d · 2026-10-08 | 56° | 56° | 57° | 56° | 56° | 58° | 58° | 56–58° |
| actual | 59° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Berlin — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the EDDB observations. The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.