Was the forecast right for Berlin on Thu Oct 1?
Berlin, State of Berlin · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the EDDB observations
14 days out, 4 models put Berlin's Thu Oct 1 high anywhere from 59° to 82°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 75°. The day verified at 78° against the EDDB observations — cloudy.
GFS landed closest, off by 1.5°. ECMWF ran 4° cool.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Thu Oct 1 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Berlin scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-09-16 | — | 52° | — | — | 72° | — | — | 52–72° |
| 14d · 2026-09-17 | 60° | 59° | 69° | — | 82° | — | — | 59–82° |
| 13d · 2026-09-18 | 71° | 73° | 67° | — | 59° | — | — | 59–73° |
| 12d · 2026-09-19 | 64° | 70° | 75° | — | 74° | — | — | 64–75° |
| 11d · 2026-09-20 | 67° | 73° | 78° | — | 65° | — | — | 65–78° |
| 10d · 2026-09-21 | 69° | 72° | 73° | — | 67° | — | — | 67–73° |
| 9d · 2026-09-22 | 74° | 69° | 76° | — | 72° | — | — | 69–76° |
| 8d · 2026-09-23 | 69° | 56° | 73° | 64° | 72° | — | — | 56–73° |
| 7d · 2026-09-24 | 70° | 73° | 69° | 76° | 76° | — | — | 69–76° |
| 6d · 2026-09-25 | 70° | 73° | 68° | 71° | 74° | 72° | 70° | 68–74° |
| 5d · 2026-09-26 | 74° | 73° | 72° | 71° | 76° | 71° | 73° | 71–76° |
| 4d · 2026-09-27 | 74° | 75° | 72° | 73° | 76° | 72° | 73° | 72–76° |
| 3d · 2026-09-28 | 73° | 72° | 72° | 75° | 76° | 70° | 70° | 70–76° |
| 2d · 2026-09-29 | 74° | 73° | 73° | 75° | 76° | 72° | 72° | 72–76° |
| 1d · 2026-09-30 | 75° | 74° | 74° | 75° | 76° | 76° | 74° | 74–76° |
| actual | 78° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Berlin — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the EDDB observations. The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.