Was the forecast right for Berlin on Sun Sep 27?
Berlin, State of Berlin · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the EDDB observations
14 days out, 4 models put Berlin's Sun Sep 27 high anywhere from 57° to 67°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 72°. The day verified at 76° against the EDDB observations — cloudy.
GFS landed closest, off by 1.7°. GEM ran 5° cool.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Sun Sep 27 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Berlin scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-09-12 | — | 70° | — | — | 80° | — | — | 70–80° |
| 14d · 2026-09-13 | 67° | 57° | 66° | — | 66° | — | — | 57–67° |
| 13d · 2026-09-14 | 62° | 58° | 65° | — | 63° | — | — | 58–65° |
| 12d · 2026-09-15 | 67° | 61° | 62° | — | 56° | — | — | 56–67° |
| 11d · 2026-09-16 | 70° | 59° | 67° | — | 66° | — | — | 59–70° |
| 10d · 2026-09-17 | 61° | 56° | 77° | — | 71° | — | — | 56–77° |
| 9d · 2026-09-18 | 60° | 53° | 69° | 70° | 70° | — | — | 53–70° |
| 8d · 2026-09-19 | 60° | 55° | 72° | 70° | 64° | — | — | 55–72° |
| 7d · 2026-09-20 | 73° | 62° | 74° | 71° | 77° | — | — | 62–77° |
| 6d · 2026-09-21 | 76° | 65° | 72° | 69° | 76° | 67° | 65° | 65–76° |
| 5d · 2026-09-22 | 72° | 67° | 70° | 67° | 75° | 72° | 66° | 66–75° |
| 4d · 2026-09-23 | 72° | 69° | 70° | 69° | 72° | 72° | 69° | 69–72° |
| 3d · 2026-09-24 | 72° | 70° | 70° | 70° | 74° | 69° | 69° | 69–74° |
| 2d · 2026-09-25 | 74° | 70° | 71° | 70° | 74° | 70° | 72° | 70–74° |
| 1d · 2026-09-26 | 74° | 72° | 71° | 71° | 74° | 73° | 72° | 71–74° |
| actual | 76° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Berlin — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the EDDB observations. The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.