Was the forecast right for Berlin on Mon Sep 21?
Berlin, State of Berlin · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the EDDB observations
14 days out, 4 models put Berlin's Mon Sep 21 high anywhere from 60° to 79°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 62°. The day verified at 66° against the EDDB observations, with 0.01 in of precipitation — drizzle.
GFS landed closest, off by 1.2°. AIFS ran 4° cool.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Mon Sep 21 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Berlin scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-09-06 | — | 71° | — | — | 61° | — | — | 61–71° |
| 14d · 2026-09-07 | 64° | 69° | 60° | — | 79° | — | — | 60–79° |
| 13d · 2026-09-08 | 82° | 79° | 67° | — | 68° | — | — | 67–82° |
| 12d · 2026-09-09 | 71° | 77° | 61° | — | 64° | — | — | 61–77° |
| 11d · 2026-09-10 | 63° | 63° | 64° | — | 67° | — | — | 63–67° |
| 10d · 2026-09-11 | 65° | 64° | 61° | — | 71° | — | — | 61–71° |
| 9d · 2026-09-12 | 71° | 64° | 65° | 65° | 66° | — | — | 64–71° |
| 8d · 2026-09-13 | 64° | 72° | 57° | 66° | 67° | — | — | 57–72° |
| 7d · 2026-09-14 | 61° | 72° | 64° | 71° | 71° | — | — | 61–72° |
| 6d · 2026-09-15 | 63° | 62° | 62° | 64° | 62° | 66° | 63° | 62–66° |
| 5d · 2026-09-16 | 62° | 62° | 61° | 63° | 61° | 64° | 61° | 61–64° |
| 4d · 2026-09-17 | 61° | 62° | 63° | 60° | 63° | 62° | 62° | 60–63° |
| 3d · 2026-09-18 | 61° | 62° | 61° | 62° | 64° | 64° | 64° | 61–64° |
| 2d · 2026-09-19 | 61° | 62° | 64° | 62° | 65° | 65° | 63° | 61–65° |
| 1d · 2026-09-20 | 62° | 62° | 64° | 62° | 65° | 64° | 62° | 62–65° |
| actual | 66° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Berlin — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the EDDB observations. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.