Was the forecast right for Berlin on Wed Sep 16?
Berlin, State of Berlin · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the EDDB observations
14 days out, 4 models put Berlin's Wed Sep 16 high anywhere from 59° to 64°; by the final call the field had settled to a median of 68°. The day verified at 70° against the EDDB observations, with 0.25 in of precipitation — showers.
UKMO landed closest, off by 0.3°. AIFS ran 4° cold.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Wed Sep 16 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Berlin scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-09-01 | — | 60° | — | — | 87° | — | — | 60–87° |
| 14d · 2026-09-02 | 59° | 63° | 63° | — | 64° | — | — | 59–64° |
| 13d · 2026-09-03 | 75° | 63° | 62° | — | 72° | — | — | 62–75° |
| 12d · 2026-09-04 | 75° | 65° | 53° | — | 69° | — | — | 53–75° |
| 11d · 2026-09-05 | 67° | 67° | 72° | — | 71° | — | — | 67–72° |
| 10d · 2026-09-06 | 67° | 66° | 68° | — | 69° | — | — | 66–69° |
| 9d · 2026-09-07 | 69° | 60° | 63° | 63° | 70° | — | — | 60–70° |
| 8d · 2026-09-08 | 76° | 76° | 68° | 74° | 80° | — | — | 68–80° |
| 7d · 2026-09-09 | 63° | 74° | 67° | 64° | 81° | — | — | 63–81° |
| 6d · 2026-09-10 | 63° | 74° | 66° | 65° | 79° | 62° | 66° | 62–79° |
| 5d · 2026-09-11 | 64° | 67° | 67° | 73° | 77° | 66° | 64° | 64–77° |
| 4d · 2026-09-12 | 64° | 66° | 67° | 72° | 69° | 64° | 68° | 64–72° |
| 3d · 2026-09-13 | 64° | 64° | 68° | 70° | 68° | 66° | 71° | 64–71° |
| 2d · 2026-09-14 | 64° | 64° | 67° | 68° | 69° | 67° | 70° | 64–70° |
| 1d · 2026-09-15 | 64° | 65° | 67° | 68° | 69° | 65° | 69° | 64–69° |
| 0d · 2026-09-16 | 66° | 68° | 68° | 68° | 69° | 67° | 70° | 66–70° |
| actual | 70° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Berlin — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the EDDB observations. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.