Was the forecast right for Berlin on Tue Sep 15?
Berlin, State of Berlin · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the EDDB observations
14 days out, 4 models put Berlin's Tue Sep 15 high anywhere from 58° to 84°; by the final call the field had settled to a median of 76°. The day verified at 79° against the EDDB observations — cloudy.
GEM landed closest, off by 2.4°. AIGFS ran 6° cold.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Tue Sep 15 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Berlin scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-08-31 | — | 65° | — | — | 82° | — | — | 65–82° |
| 14d · 2026-09-01 | 58° | 61° | 61° | — | 84° | — | — | 58–84° |
| 13d · 2026-09-02 | 61° | 64° | 62° | — | 65° | — | — | 61–65° |
| 12d · 2026-09-03 | 66° | 55° | 62° | — | 68° | — | — | 55–68° |
| 11d · 2026-09-04 | 75° | 65° | 61° | — | 62° | — | — | 61–75° |
| 10d · 2026-09-05 | 66° | 66° | 69° | — | 65° | — | — | 65–69° |
| 9d · 2026-09-06 | 71° | 71° | 74° | 72° | 80° | — | — | 71–80° |
| 8d · 2026-09-07 | 70° | 71° | 76° | 72° | 83° | — | — | 70–83° |
| 7d · 2026-09-08 | 69° | 71° | 78° | 72° | 78° | — | — | 69–78° |
| 6d · 2026-09-09 | 73° | 70° | 71° | 76° | 77° | 82° | 73° | 70–82° |
| 5d · 2026-09-10 | 66° | 69° | 75° | 75° | 75° | 71° | 71° | 66–75° |
| 4d · 2026-09-11 | 73° | 72° | 75° | 76° | 75° | 74° | 76° | 72–76° |
| 3d · 2026-09-12 | 73° | 70° | 74° | 77° | 77° | 77° | 73° | 70–77° |
| 2d · 2026-09-13 | 74° | 71° | 74° | 75° | 78° | 76° | 75° | 71–78° |
| 1d · 2026-09-14 | 74° | 71° | 75° | 74° | 78° | 75° | 74° | 71–78° |
| 0d · 2026-09-15 | 76° | 73° | 76° | 76° | 76° | 75° | 76° | 73–76° |
| actual | 79° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Berlin — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the EDDB observations. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.