Was the forecast right for Berlin on Mon Sep 14?
Berlin, State of Berlin · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the EDDB observations
14 days out, 4 models put Berlin's Mon Sep 14 high anywhere from 61° to 79°; by the final call the field had settled to a median of 65°. The day verified at 66° against the EDDB observations — drizzle.
AIGFS landed closest, off by 0.4°. ICON ran 4° cold.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Mon Sep 14 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Berlin scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-08-30 | — | 67° | — | — | 78° | — | — | 67–78° |
| 14d · 2026-08-31 | 63° | 66° | 61° | — | 79° | — | — | 61–79° |
| 13d · 2026-09-01 | 58° | 71° | 60° | — | 76° | — | — | 58–76° |
| 12d · 2026-09-02 | 61° | 60° | 63° | — | 65° | — | — | 60–65° |
| 11d · 2026-09-03 | 65° | 64° | 68° | — | 68° | — | — | 64–68° |
| 10d · 2026-09-04 | 68° | 65° | 63° | — | 69° | — | — | 63–69° |
| 9d · 2026-09-05 | 69° | 65° | 68° | 70° | 55° | — | — | 55–70° |
| 8d · 2026-09-06 | 72° | 74° | 73° | 72° | 86° | — | — | 72–86° |
| 7d · 2026-09-07 | 69° | 75° | 74° | 72° | 77° | — | — | 69–77° |
| 6d · 2026-09-08 | 64° | 69° | 67° | 68° | 71° | 79° | 64° | 64–79° |
| 5d · 2026-09-09 | 61° | 64° | 68° | 72° | 71° | 74° | 66° | 61–74° |
| 4d · 2026-09-10 | 62° | 63° | 69° | 66° | 70° | 64° | 62° | 62–70° |
| 3d · 2026-09-11 | 61° | 64° | 66° | 70° | 68° | 64° | 64° | 61–70° |
| 2d · 2026-09-12 | 61° | 64° | 64° | 66° | 70° | 64° | 63° | 61–70° |
| 1d · 2026-09-13 | 62° | 65° | 65° | 64° | 70° | 62° | 64° | 62–70° |
| 0d · 2026-09-14 | 63° | 66° | 65° | 64° | 70° | 62° | 65° | 62–70° |
| actual | 66° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Berlin — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the EDDB observations. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.