Was the forecast right for Berlin on Sat Sep 12?
Berlin, State of Berlin · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the EDDB observations
14 days out, 4 models put Berlin's Sat Sep 12 high anywhere from 64° to 85°; by the final call the field had settled to a median of 70°. The day verified at 73° against the EDDB observations — drizzle.
GFS landed closest, off by 0.5°. AIGFS ran 4° cold.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Sat Sep 12 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Berlin scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14d · 2026-08-29 | 70° | 64° | 72° | — | 85° | — | — | 64–85° |
| 13d · 2026-08-30 | 75° | 75° | 70° | — | 60° | — | — | 60–75° |
| 12d · 2026-08-31 | 68° | 64° | 60° | — | 68° | — | — | 60–68° |
| 11d · 2026-09-01 | 64° | 67° | 58° | — | 69° | — | — | 58–69° |
| 10d · 2026-09-02 | 62° | 66° | 68° | — | 72° | — | — | 62–72° |
| 9d · 2026-09-03 | 67° | 61° | 68° | 66° | 65° | — | — | 61–68° |
| 8d · 2026-09-04 | 74° | 65° | 61° | 67° | 60° | — | — | 60–74° |
| 7d · 2026-09-05 | 68° | 70° | 68° | 70° | 69° | — | — | 68–70° |
| 6d · 2026-09-06 | 71° | 69° | 68° | 71° | 75° | 69° | 67° | 67–75° |
| 5d · 2026-09-07 | 71° | 71° | 70° | 69° | 75° | 70° | 66° | 66–75° |
| 4d · 2026-09-08 | 72° | 67° | 74° | 62° | 70° | 73° | 72° | 62–74° |
| 3d · 2026-09-09 | 70° | 68° | 69° | 73° | 71° | 71° | 72° | 68–73° |
| 2d · 2026-09-10 | 69° | 68° | 71° | 71° | 71° | 70° | 70° | 68–71° |
| 1d · 2026-09-11 | 70° | 68° | 70° | 69° | 70° | 70° | 70° | 68–70° |
| 0d · 2026-09-12 | 70° | 69° | 71° | 73° | 73° | 70° | 70° | 69–73° |
| actual | 73° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Berlin — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the EDDB observations. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.