Was the forecast right for Berlin on Fri Sep 11?
Berlin, State of Berlin · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the EDDB observations
13 days out, 4 models put Berlin's Fri Sep 11 high anywhere from 59° to 75°; by the final call the field had settled to a median of 68°. The day verified at 70° against the EDDB observations — cloudy.
GFS landed closest, off by 1.1°. GEM ran 3° cold.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Fri Sep 11 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Berlin scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13d · 2026-08-29 | 68° | 59° | 69° | — | 75° | — | — | 59–75° |
| 12d · 2026-08-30 | 72° | 75° | 74° | — | 64° | — | — | 64–75° |
| 11d · 2026-08-31 | 71° | 64° | 73° | — | 72° | — | — | 64–73° |
| 10d · 2026-09-01 | 61° | 67° | 65° | — | 66° | — | — | 61–67° |
| 9d · 2026-09-02 | 62° | 67° | 68° | 66° | 70° | — | — | 62–70° |
| 8d · 2026-09-03 | 64° | 66° | 67° | 63° | 64° | — | — | 63–67° |
| 7d · 2026-09-04 | 68° | 64° | 60° | 65° | 66° | — | — | 60–68° |
| 6d · 2026-09-05 | 66° | 67° | 68° | 69° | 72° | 67° | 66° | 66–72° |
| 5d · 2026-09-06 | 67° | 68° | 67° | 68° | 73° | 72° | 66° | 66–73° |
| 4d · 2026-09-07 | 66° | 70° | 67° | 68° | 72° | 68° | 64° | 64–72° |
| 3d · 2026-09-08 | 67° | 68° | 70° | 66° | 74° | 70° | 68° | 66–74° |
| 2d · 2026-09-09 | 68° | 69° | 69° | 71° | 72° | 69° | 66° | 66–72° |
| 1d · 2026-09-10 | 68° | 68° | 68° | 70° | 71° | 68° | 65° | 65–71° |
| 0d · 2026-09-11 | 68° | 68° | 69° | 67° | 71° | 67° | 68° | 67–71° |
| actual | 70° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Berlin — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the EDDB observations. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.