Was the forecast right for Berlin on Sun Sep 6?
Berlin, State of Berlin · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the EDDB observations
8 days out, 5 models put Berlin's Sun Sep 6 high anywhere from 67° to 83°; by the final call the field had settled to a median of 67°. The day verified at 70° against the EDDB observations — cloudy.
GFS landed closest, off by 0.8°. ECMWF ran 5° cold.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Sun Sep 6 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Berlin scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8d · 2026-08-29 | 83° | 67° | 77° | 69° | 73° | — | — | 67–83° |
| 7d · 2026-08-30 | 77° | 67° | 68° | 66° | 69° | — | — | 66–77° |
| 6d · 2026-08-31 | 69° | 68° | 72° | 69° | 73° | 69° | 70° | 68–73° |
| 5d · 2026-09-01 | 68° | 68° | 74° | 71° | 69° | 69° | 68° | 68–74° |
| 4d · 2026-09-02 | 66° | 67° | 69° | 67° | 71° | 70° | 68° | 66–71° |
| 3d · 2026-09-03 | 66° | 67° | 67° | 68° | 72° | 69° | 69° | 66–72° |
| 2d · 2026-09-04 | 66° | 67° | 67° | 69° | 71° | 69° | 70° | 66–71° |
| 1d · 2026-09-05 | 66° | 66° | 68° | 68° | 71° | 68° | 68° | 66–71° |
| 0d · 2026-09-06 | 66° | 67° | 65° | 68° | 71° | 66° | 67° | 65–71° |
| actual | 70° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Berlin — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the EDDB observations. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.