Was the forecast right for Atlanta on Sat Oct 17?
Atlanta, Georgia · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the ATL observations
14 days out, 4 models put Atlanta's Sat Oct 17 high anywhere from 65° to 81°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 65°. The day verified at 67° against the ATL observations — cloudy.
UKMO landed closest, off by 0.4°. AIFS ran 4° cool.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Sat Oct 17 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Atlanta scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-10-02 | — | 67° | — | — | 61° | — | — | 61–67° |
| 14d · 2026-10-03 | 81° | 67° | 67° | — | 65° | — | — | 65–81° |
| 13d · 2026-10-04 | 76° | 64° | 84° | — | 77° | — | — | 64–84° |
| 12d · 2026-10-05 | 72° | 72° | 77° | — | 80° | — | — | 72–80° |
| 11d · 2026-10-06 | 58° | 64° | 81° | — | 70° | — | — | 58–81° |
| 10d · 2026-10-07 | 85° | 86° | 65° | — | 80° | — | — | 65–86° |
| 9d · 2026-10-08 | 65° | 84° | 69° | 71° | 84° | — | — | 65–84° |
| 8d · 2026-10-09 | 65° | 72° | 79° | 69° | 73° | — | — | 65–79° |
| 7d · 2026-10-10 | 64° | 63° | 68° | 69° | 73° | — | — | 63–73° |
| 6d · 2026-10-11 | 67° | 64° | 67° | 68° | 71° | 66° | 68° | 64–71° |
| 5d · 2026-10-12 | — | 66° | 67° | 67° | 73° | 68° | 67° | 66–73° |
| 4d · 2026-10-13 | 63° | 67° | 66° | 68° | 70° | 66° | 66° | 63–70° |
| 3d · 2026-10-14 | 64° | 66° | 64° | 65° | 70° | 68° | 66° | 64–70° |
| 2d · 2026-10-15 | 62° | 66° | 64° | 64° | 69° | 66° | 67° | 62–69° |
| 1d · 2026-10-16 | 63° | 65° | 65° | 64° | 68° | 65° | 67° | 63–68° |
| actual | 67° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Atlanta — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the ATL observations. The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.