Was the forecast right for Atlanta on Mon Oct 12?
Atlanta, Georgia · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the ATL observations
14 days out, 4 models put Atlanta's Mon Oct 12 high anywhere from 69° to 81°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 81°. The day verified at 84° against the ATL observations — partly cloudy.
GFS landed closest, off by 0.9°. GEM ran 6° cool.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Mon Oct 12 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Atlanta scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-09-27 | — | 63° | — | — | 74° | — | — | 63–74° |
| 14d · 2026-09-28 | 81° | 69° | 75° | — | 76° | — | — | 69–81° |
| 13d · 2026-09-29 | 74° | 66° | 83° | — | 71° | — | — | 66–83° |
| 12d · 2026-09-30 | 73° | 71° | 68° | — | 70° | — | — | 68–73° |
| 11d · 2026-10-01 | 76° | 78° | 80° | — | 71° | — | — | 71–80° |
| 10d · 2026-10-02 | 71° | 80° | 82° | — | 85° | — | — | 71–85° |
| 9d · 2026-10-03 | 68° | 79° | 75° | 72° | 66° | — | — | 66–79° |
| 8d · 2026-10-04 | 68° | 64° | 67° | 74° | 78° | — | — | 64–78° |
| 7d · 2026-10-05 | 72° | 74° | 81° | 75° | 81° | — | — | 72–81° |
| 6d · 2026-10-06 | 83° | 70° | 80° | 72° | 80° | 77° | — | 70–83° |
| 5d · 2026-10-07 | 82° | 78° | 78° | 75° | 84° | 83° | 80° | 75–84° |
| 4d · 2026-10-08 | 82° | 77° | 81° | 78° | 84° | 84° | 82° | 77–84° |
| 3d · 2026-10-09 | 82° | 80° | 85° | 78° | 85° | 83° | 83° | 78–85° |
| 2d · 2026-10-10 | 81° | 82° | 82° | 78° | 86° | 81° | 82° | 78–86° |
| 1d · 2026-10-11 | 82° | 81° | 81° | 78° | 85° | 81° | 82° | 78–85° |
| actual | 84° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Atlanta — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the ATL observations. The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.