Was the forecast right for Atlanta on Mon Oct 5?
Atlanta, Georgia · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the ATL observations
14 days out, 4 models put Atlanta's Mon Oct 5 high anywhere from 62° to 84°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 75°. The day verified at 76° against the ATL observations — drizzle.
AIGFS landed closest, off by 0.3°. GEM ran 4° cool.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Mon Oct 5 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Atlanta scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-09-20 | — | 80° | — | — | 73° | — | — | 73–80° |
| 14d · 2026-09-21 | 70° | 68° | 84° | — | 62° | — | — | 62–84° |
| 13d · 2026-09-22 | 79° | 65° | 88° | — | 74° | — | — | 65–88° |
| 12d · 2026-09-23 | 76° | 74° | 71° | — | 71° | — | — | 71–76° |
| 11d · 2026-09-24 | 71° | 82° | 80° | — | 77° | — | — | 71–82° |
| 10d · 2026-09-25 | 76° | 85° | 82° | — | 80° | — | — | 76–85° |
| 9d · 2026-09-26 | 76° | 71° | 81° | 76° | 73° | — | — | 71–81° |
| 8d · 2026-09-27 | 75° | 71° | 85° | 73° | 78° | — | — | 71–85° |
| 7d · 2026-09-28 | 78° | 74° | 77° | 72° | 79° | — | — | 72–79° |
| 6d · 2026-09-29 | 76° | 78° | 81° | 71° | 67° | 82° | 78° | 67–82° |
| 5d · 2026-09-30 | 79° | 79° | 81° | 73° | 79° | 81° | 80° | 73–81° |
| 4d · 2026-10-01 | 78° | 77° | 83° | 75° | 71° | 79° | 76° | 71–83° |
| 3d · 2026-10-02 | 77° | 79° | 80° | 76° | 82° | 78° | 81° | 76–82° |
| 2d · 2026-10-03 | 76° | 78° | 79° | 79° | 83° | 74° | 76° | 74–83° |
| 1d · 2026-10-04 | 74° | 76° | 78° | 72° | 77° | 74° | 75° | 72–78° |
| actual | 76° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Atlanta — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the ATL observations. The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.