Was the forecast right for Atlanta on Sun Oct 4?
Atlanta, Georgia · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the ATL observations
14 days out, 4 models put Atlanta's Sun Oct 4 high anywhere from 74° to 81°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 74°. The day verified at 78° against the ATL observations, with 0.36 in of precipitation — thunderstorms.
GFS landed closest, off by 3.2°. GEM ran 6° cool.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Sun Oct 4 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Atlanta scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-09-19 | — | 71° | — | — | 80° | — | — | 71–80° |
| 14d · 2026-09-20 | 74° | 79° | 81° | — | 74° | — | — | 74–81° |
| 13d · 2026-09-21 | 76° | 83° | 82° | — | 71° | — | — | 71–83° |
| 12d · 2026-09-22 | 75° | 73° | 83° | — | 74° | — | — | 73–83° |
| 11d · 2026-09-23 | 79° | 84° | 80° | — | 72° | — | — | 72–84° |
| 10d · 2026-09-24 | 74° | 79° | 81° | — | 73° | — | — | 73–81° |
| 9d · 2026-09-25 | 78° | 88° | 82° | 82° | 78° | — | — | 78–88° |
| 8d · 2026-09-26 | 77° | 83° | 87° | 80° | 83° | — | — | 77–87° |
| 7d · 2026-09-27 | 82° | 79° | 75° | 78° | 60° | — | — | 60–82° |
| 6d · 2026-09-28 | 77° | 80° | 74° | 77° | 73° | 70° | 84° | 70–84° |
| 5d · 2026-09-29 | 72° | 70° | 79° | 73° | 78° | 82° | 77° | 70–82° |
| 4d · 2026-09-30 | 74° | 70° | 79° | 74° | 72° | 72° | 77° | 70–79° |
| 3d · 2026-10-01 | 74° | 71° | 78° | 72° | 73° | 73° | 76° | 71–78° |
| 2d · 2026-10-02 | 74° | 71° | 73° | 73° | 74° | 74° | 74° | 71–74° |
| 1d · 2026-10-03 | 74° | 72° | 74° | 72° | 75° | 73° | 75° | 72–75° |
| actual | 78° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Atlanta — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the ATL observations. The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.