Was the forecast right for Atlanta on Sat Oct 3?
Atlanta, Georgia · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the ATL observations
14 days out, 4 models put Atlanta's Sat Oct 3 high anywhere from 72° to 84°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 82°. The day verified at 86° against the ATL observations, with 0.2 in of precipitation — showers.
GFS landed closest, off by 0.9°. GEM ran 5° cool.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Sat Oct 3 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Atlanta scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-09-18 | — | 66° | — | — | 70° | — | — | 66–70° |
| 14d · 2026-09-19 | 72° | 72° | 84° | — | 77° | — | — | 72–84° |
| 13d · 2026-09-20 | 82° | 70° | 78° | — | 75° | — | — | 70–82° |
| 12d · 2026-09-21 | 82° | 83° | 85° | — | 77° | — | — | 77–85° |
| 11d · 2026-09-22 | 74° | 75° | 84° | — | 84° | — | — | 74–84° |
| 10d · 2026-09-23 | 80° | 83° | 81° | — | 69° | — | — | 69–83° |
| 9d · 2026-09-24 | 80° | 85° | 89° | 86° | 77° | — | — | 77–89° |
| 8d · 2026-09-25 | 78° | 87° | 89° | 84° | 78° | — | — | 78–89° |
| 7d · 2026-09-26 | 76° | 86° | 90° | 75° | 78° | — | — | 75–90° |
| 6d · 2026-09-27 | 81° | 81° | 83° | 86° | 70° | 74° | 78° | 70–86° |
| 5d · 2026-09-28 | 77° | 77° | 80° | 85° | 73° | 83° | 88° | 73–88° |
| 4d · 2026-09-29 | 76° | 86° | 90° | 90° | 88° | 86° | 83° | 76–90° |
| 3d · 2026-09-30 | 82° | 82° | 85° | 76° | 86° | 84° | 84° | 76–86° |
| 2d · 2026-10-01 | 82° | 82° | 84° | 80° | 81° | 84° | 83° | 80–84° |
| 1d · 2026-10-02 | 81° | 83° | 83° | 81° | 87° | 82° | 81° | 81–87° |
| actual | 86° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Atlanta — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the ATL observations. The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.