Was the forecast right for Atlanta on Mon Sep 28?
Atlanta, Georgia · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the ATL observations
14 days out, 4 models put Atlanta's Mon Sep 28 high anywhere from 81° to 87°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 79°. The day verified at 80° against the ATL observations — partly cloudy.
ICON landed closest, off by 0.4°. GFS ran 5° warm.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Mon Sep 28 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Atlanta scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-09-13 | — | 80° | — | — | 78° | — | — | 78–80° |
| 14d · 2026-09-14 | 87° | 81° | 85° | — | 86° | — | — | 81–87° |
| 13d · 2026-09-15 | 80° | 79° | 69° | — | 92° | — | — | 69–92° |
| 12d · 2026-09-16 | 74° | 75° | 75° | — | 76° | — | — | 74–76° |
| 11d · 2026-09-17 | 78° | 77° | 84° | — | 78° | — | — | 77–84° |
| 10d · 2026-09-18 | 78° | 80° | 80° | — | 77° | — | — | 77–80° |
| 9d · 2026-09-19 | 80° | 74° | 79° | 84° | 82° | — | — | 74–84° |
| 8d · 2026-09-20 | 79° | 79° | 82° | 81° | 82° | — | — | 79–82° |
| 7d · 2026-09-21 | 79° | 83° | 80° | 82° | 84° | — | — | 79–84° |
| 6d · 2026-09-22 | 81° | 82° | 80° | 80° | 85° | 79° | — | 79–85° |
| 5d · 2026-09-23 | 81° | 80° | 85° | 81° | 84° | 81° | 76° | 76–85° |
| 4d · 2026-09-24 | 80° | 81° | 82° | 77° | 85° | 81° | 79° | 77–85° |
| 3d · 2026-09-25 | 80° | 81° | 81° | 78° | 86° | 81° | 79° | 78–86° |
| 2d · 2026-09-26 | 80° | 81° | 82° | 77° | 86° | 82° | 79° | 77–86° |
| 1d · 2026-09-27 | 79° | 79° | 81° | 78° | 85° | 80° | 77° | 77–85° |
| actual | 80° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Atlanta — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the ATL observations. The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.