Was the forecast right for Atlanta on Fri Sep 25?
Atlanta, Georgia · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the ATL observations
14 days out, 4 models put Atlanta's Fri Sep 25 high anywhere from 68° to 90°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 74°. The day verified at 77° against the ATL observations — cloudy.
ICON landed closest, off by 0.5°. AIFS ran 5° cool.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Fri Sep 25 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Atlanta scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-09-10 | — | 76° | — | — | 89° | — | — | 76–89° |
| 14d · 2026-09-11 | 82° | 68° | 79° | — | 90° | — | — | 68–90° |
| 13d · 2026-09-12 | 84° | 77° | 79° | — | 84° | — | — | 77–84° |
| 12d · 2026-09-13 | 85° | 80° | 79° | — | 78° | — | — | 78–85° |
| 11d · 2026-09-14 | 80° | 81° | 78° | — | 75° | — | — | 75–81° |
| 10d · 2026-09-15 | 83° | 88° | 91° | — | 92° | — | — | 83–92° |
| 9d · 2026-09-16 | 83° | 80° | 78° | 83° | 89° | — | — | 78–89° |
| 8d · 2026-09-17 | 75° | 74° | 81° | 82° | 82° | — | — | 74–82° |
| 7d · 2026-09-18 | 73° | 78° | 75° | 80° | 85° | — | — | 73–85° |
| 6d · 2026-09-19 | 75° | 76° | 74° | 82° | 81° | 81° | 74° | 74–82° |
| 5d · 2026-09-20 | 73° | 75° | 79° | 76° | 81° | 79° | 75° | 73–81° |
| 4d · 2026-09-21 | 73° | 77° | 78° | 74° | 80° | 80° | 74° | 73–80° |
| 3d · 2026-09-22 | 74° | 76° | 76° | 73° | 80° | 82° | 73° | 73–82° |
| 2d · 2026-09-23 | 72° | 73° | 77° | 73° | 81° | 80° | 77° | 72–81° |
| 1d · 2026-09-24 | 72° | 74° | 74° | 74° | 81° | 78° | 76° | 72–81° |
| actual | 77° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Atlanta — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the ATL observations. The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.