Was the forecast right for Atlanta on Thu Sep 24?
Atlanta, Georgia · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the ATL observations
14 days out, 4 models put Atlanta's Thu Sep 24 high anywhere from 66° to 85°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 71°. The day verified at 70° against the ATL observations — drizzle.
GFS landed closest, off by 0.7°. ECMWF ran 5° warm.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Thu Sep 24 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Atlanta scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-09-09 | — | 76° | — | — | 70° | — | — | 70–76° |
| 14d · 2026-09-10 | 66° | 79° | 76° | — | 85° | — | — | 66–85° |
| 13d · 2026-09-11 | 82° | 75° | 73° | — | 87° | — | — | 73–87° |
| 12d · 2026-09-12 | 85° | 83° | 82° | — | 84° | — | — | 82–85° |
| 11d · 2026-09-13 | 81° | 82° | 78° | — | 93° | — | — | 78–93° |
| 10d · 2026-09-14 | 76° | 82° | 72° | — | 84° | — | — | 72–84° |
| 9d · 2026-09-15 | 79° | 88° | 89° | 90° | 92° | — | — | 79–92° |
| 8d · 2026-09-16 | 81° | 84° | 80° | 82° | 87° | — | — | 80–87° |
| 7d · 2026-09-17 | 74° | 80° | 83° | 82° | 84° | — | — | 74–84° |
| 6d · 2026-09-18 | 71° | 74° | 73° | 79° | 86° | 77° | 76° | 71–86° |
| 5d · 2026-09-19 | 70° | 72° | 72° | 82° | 83° | 80° | 78° | 70–83° |
| 4d · 2026-09-20 | 68° | 70° | 76° | 72° | 77° | 78° | 77° | 68–78° |
| 3d · 2026-09-21 | 68° | 70° | 74° | 73° | 72° | 74° | 70° | 68–74° |
| 2d · 2026-09-22 | 69° | 70° | 74° | 70° | 72° | 76° | 72° | 69–76° |
| 1d · 2026-09-23 | 68° | 68° | 75° | 68° | 71° | 73° | 71° | 68–75° |
| actual | 70° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Atlanta — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the ATL observations. The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.