Was the forecast right for Atlanta on Wed Sep 23?
Atlanta, Georgia · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the ATL observations
14 days out, 4 models put Atlanta's Wed Sep 23 high anywhere from 72° to 86°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 77°. The day verified at 82° against the ATL observations — thunderstorms.
ECMWF landed closest, off by 2.7°. AIGFS ran 8° cool.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Wed Sep 23 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Atlanta scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-09-08 | — | 76° | — | — | 72° | — | — | 72–76° |
| 14d · 2026-09-09 | 86° | 75° | 72° | — | 76° | — | — | 72–86° |
| 13d · 2026-09-10 | 60° | 73° | 72° | — | 81° | — | — | 60–81° |
| 12d · 2026-09-11 | 80° | 72° | 76° | — | 86° | — | — | 72–86° |
| 11d · 2026-09-12 | 88° | 84° | 82° | — | 76° | — | — | 76–88° |
| 10d · 2026-09-13 | 80° | 79° | 96° | — | 91° | — | — | 79–96° |
| 9d · 2026-09-14 | 80° | 78° | 73° | 72° | 84° | — | — | 72–84° |
| 8d · 2026-09-15 | 77° | 84° | 85° | 89° | 87° | — | — | 77–89° |
| 7d · 2026-09-16 | 83° | 80° | 84° | 84° | 79° | — | — | 79–84° |
| 6d · 2026-09-17 | 81° | 85° | 86° | 83° | 94° | 83° | 83° | 81–94° |
| 5d · 2026-09-18 | 77° | 78° | 76° | 74° | 80° | 78° | 78° | 74–80° |
| 4d · 2026-09-19 | 77° | 78° | 79° | 87° | 77° | 78° | 79° | 77–87° |
| 3d · 2026-09-20 | 77° | 74° | 80° | 75° | 77° | 79° | 76° | 74–80° |
| 2d · 2026-09-21 | 76° | 77° | 80° | 79° | 77° | 84° | 78° | 76–84° |
| 1d · 2026-09-22 | 75° | 74° | 79° | 77° | 75° | 78° | 79° | 74–79° |
| actual | 82° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Atlanta — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the ATL observations. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.