Was the forecast right for Atlanta on Tue Sep 22?
Atlanta, Georgia · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the ATL observations
14 days out, 4 models put Atlanta's Tue Sep 22 high anywhere from 68° to 94°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 87°. The day verified at 86° against the ATL observations — thunderstorms.
AIFS landed closest, off by 0.5°. GFS ran 6° warm.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Tue Sep 22 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Atlanta scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-09-07 | — | 78° | — | — | 87° | — | — | 78–87° |
| 14d · 2026-09-08 | 68° | 71° | 84° | — | 94° | — | — | 68–94° |
| 13d · 2026-09-09 | 85° | 71° | 71° | — | 84° | — | — | 71–85° |
| 12d · 2026-09-10 | 64° | 74° | 73° | — | 76° | — | — | 64–76° |
| 11d · 2026-09-11 | 70° | 61° | 91° | — | 77° | — | — | 61–91° |
| 10d · 2026-09-12 | 90° | 81° | 81° | — | 75° | — | — | 75–90° |
| 9d · 2026-09-13 | 86° | 75° | 92° | 86° | 85° | — | — | 75–92° |
| 8d · 2026-09-14 | 83° | 71° | 83° | 80° | 88° | — | — | 71–88° |
| 7d · 2026-09-15 | 80° | 77° | 83° | 90° | 89° | — | — | 77–90° |
| 6d · 2026-09-16 | 83° | 80° | 86° | 84° | 80° | 81° | 76° | 76–86° |
| 5d · 2026-09-17 | 83° | 87° | 86° | 85° | 92° | 86° | 86° | 83–92° |
| 4d · 2026-09-18 | 82° | 84° | 82° | 86° | 85° | 79° | 82° | 79–86° |
| 3d · 2026-09-19 | 84° | 86° | 85° | 90° | 91° | 86° | 88° | 84–91° |
| 2d · 2026-09-20 | 85° | 86° | 86° | 85° | 92° | 87° | 88° | 85–92° |
| 1d · 2026-09-21 | 86° | 87° | 87° | 87° | 92° | 89° | 87° | 86–92° |
| actual | 86° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Atlanta — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the ATL observations. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.