Was the forecast right for Atlanta on Thu Sep 10?
Atlanta, Georgia · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the ATL observations
14 days out, 4 models put Atlanta's Thu Sep 10 high anywhere from 82° to 105°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 89°. The day verified at 91° against the ATL observations — drizzle.
GEM landed closest, off by 0.6°. UKMO ran 4° cool.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Thu Sep 10 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Atlanta scoreboard shows them, labeled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-08-26 | — | 90° | — | — | 96° | — | — | 90–96° |
| 14d · 2026-08-27 | 82° | 91° | 83° | — | 105° | — | — | 82–105° |
| 13d · 2026-08-28 | 86° | 87° | 95° | — | 93° | — | — | 86–95° |
| 12d · 2026-08-29 | 89° | 84° | 95° | — | 80° | — | — | 80–95° |
| 11d · 2026-08-30 | 86° | 89° | 96° | — | 87° | — | — | 86–96° |
| 10d · 2026-08-31 | 83° | 82° | 101° | — | 93° | — | — | 82–101° |
| 9d · 2026-09-01 | 91° | 90° | 93° | 89° | 99° | — | — | 89–99° |
| 8d · 2026-09-02 | 90° | 90° | 96° | 91° | 98° | — | — | 90–98° |
| 7d · 2026-09-03 | 90° | 85° | 93° | 87° | 98° | — | — | 85–98° |
| 6d · 2026-09-04 | 84° | 90° | 88° | 91° | 96° | 92° | 89° | 84–96° |
| 5d · 2026-09-05 | 82° | 90° | 86° | 89° | 92° | 88° | 85° | 82–92° |
| 4d · 2026-09-06 | 85° | 85° | 85° | 85° | 94° | 83° | 84° | 83–94° |
| 3d · 2026-09-07 | 88° | 89° | 92° | 83° | 96° | 89° | 86° | 83–96° |
| 2d · 2026-09-08 | 88° | 89° | 90° | 92° | 91° | 89° | 85° | 85–92° |
| 1d · 2026-09-09 | 89° | 89° | 89° | 92° | 92° | 90° | 87° | 87–92° |
| actual | 91° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Atlanta — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the ATL observations. The actual values are the ones in hand when this day was verified, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; verified days exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.