Was the forecast right for Atlanta on Mon Sep 7?
Atlanta, Georgia · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the ATL observations
14 days out, 4 models put Atlanta's Mon Sep 7 high anywhere from 82° to 97°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 83°. The day verified at 83° against the ATL observations — drizzle.
ICON landed closest, off by 0.0°. GFS ran 4° warm.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Mon Sep 7 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Atlanta scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-08-23 | — | 92° | — | — | 84° | — | — | 84–92° |
| 14d · 2026-08-24 | 93° | 82° | 97° | — | 85° | — | — | 82–97° |
| 13d · 2026-08-25 | 88° | 90° | 92° | — | 95° | — | — | 88–95° |
| 12d · 2026-08-26 | 85° | 85° | 95° | — | 84° | — | — | 84–95° |
| 11d · 2026-08-27 | 86° | 94° | 94° | — | 102° | — | — | 86–102° |
| 10d · 2026-08-28 | 84° | 85° | 90° | — | 101° | — | — | 84–101° |
| 9d · 2026-08-29 | 88° | 81° | 86° | 76° | 94° | — | — | 76–94° |
| 8d · 2026-08-30 | 81° | 88° | 84° | 83° | 87° | — | — | 81–88° |
| 7d · 2026-08-31 | 78° | 83° | 93° | 78° | 86° | — | — | 78–93° |
| 6d · 2026-09-01 | 82° | 84° | 85° | 83° | 84° | 87° | 92° | 82–92° |
| 5d · 2026-09-02 | 81° | 84° | 83° | 79° | 86° | 85° | 85° | 79–86° |
| 4d · 2026-09-03 | 79° | 80° | 85° | 79° | 86° | 84° | 89° | 79–89° |
| 3d · 2026-09-04 | 80° | 80° | 86° | 79° | 86° | 84° | 87° | 79–87° |
| 2d · 2026-09-05 | 80° | 79° | 86° | 81° | 89° | 80° | 81° | 79–89° |
| 1d · 2026-09-06 | 79° | 80° | 84° | 82° | 87° | 83° | 84° | 79–87° |
| actual | 83° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Atlanta — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the ATL observations. The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.