Was the forecast right for Atlanta on Sun Sep 6?
Atlanta, Georgia · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the ATL observations
13 days out, 4 models put Atlanta's Sun Sep 6 high anywhere from 82° to 95°; by the final call the field had settled to a median of 95°. The day verified at 95° against the ATL observations — showers.
GEM landed closest, off by 0.0°. AIFS ran 4° cold.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Sun Sep 6 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Atlanta scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-08-22 | — | 84° | — | — | 94° | — | — | 84–94° |
| 14d · 2026-08-23 | 85° | 84° | — | — | 93° | — | — | 84–93° |
| 13d · 2026-08-24 | 90° | 90° | 95° | — | 82° | — | — | 82–95° |
| 12d · 2026-08-25 | 85° | 92° | 93° | — | 100° | — | — | 85–100° |
| 11d · 2026-08-26 | 92° | 90° | 92° | — | 91° | — | — | 90–92° |
| 10d · 2026-08-27 | 92° | 93° | 97° | — | 100° | — | — | 92–100° |
| 9d · 2026-08-28 | 84° | 92° | 96° | — | 103° | — | — | 84–103° |
| 8d · 2026-08-29 | 83° | 92° | 92° | 92° | 96° | — | — | 83–96° |
| 7d · 2026-08-30 | 86° | 87° | 90° | 91° | 90° | — | — | 86–91° |
| 6d · 2026-08-31 | 91° | 84° | 92° | 89° | 95° | 95° | — | 84–95° |
| 5d · 2026-09-01 | 93° | 90° | 98° | 95° | 95° | 94° | 91° | 90–98° |
| 4d · 2026-09-02 | 88° | 92° | 98° | 91° | 101° | 91° | 97° | 88–101° |
| 3d · 2026-09-03 | 94° | 94° | 97° | 92° | 98° | 90° | 96° | 90–98° |
| 2d · 2026-09-04 | 92° | 95° | 96° | 94° | 99° | 95° | 96° | 92–99° |
| 1d · 2026-09-05 | 92° | 94° | 96° | 92° | 98° | 95° | 94° | 92–98° |
| 0d · 2026-09-06 | 91° | 96° | 96° | 95° | 99° | 94° | 94° | 91–99° |
| actual | 95° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Atlanta — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the ATL observations. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.