Was the forecast right for Atlanta on Sat Sep 5?
Atlanta, Georgia · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the ATL observations
14 days out, 4 models put Atlanta's Sat Sep 5 high anywhere from 80° to 91°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 96°. The day verified at 97° against the ATL observations, with 0.28 in of precipitation — showers.
UKMO landed closest, off by 0.1°. GFS ran 6° warm.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Sat Sep 5 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Atlanta scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-08-21 | — | 72° | — | — | 102° | — | — | 72–102° |
| 14d · 2026-08-22 | 91° | 85° | 86° | — | 80° | — | — | 80–91° |
| 13d · 2026-08-23 | 96° | 92° | 95° | — | 92° | — | — | 92–96° |
| 12d · 2026-08-24 | 92° | 89° | 97° | — | 78° | — | — | 78–97° |
| 11d · 2026-08-25 | 89° | 90° | 88° | — | 94° | — | — | 88–94° |
| 10d · 2026-08-26 | 90° | 93° | 95° | — | 105° | — | — | 90–105° |
| 9d · 2026-08-27 | 89° | 95° | 91° | 93° | 103° | — | — | 89–103° |
| 8d · 2026-08-28 | 90° | 95° | 83° | 94° | 100° | — | — | 83–100° |
| 7d · 2026-08-29 | 87° | 92° | 101° | 92° | 94° | — | — | 87–101° |
| 6d · 2026-08-30 | 91° | 96° | 91° | 92° | 96° | 96° | 86° | 86–96° |
| 5d · 2026-08-31 | 92° | 94° | 102° | 93° | 90° | 92° | 92° | 90–102° |
| 4d · 2026-09-01 | 92° | 96° | 97° | 93° | 103° | 93° | 92° | 92–103° |
| 3d · 2026-09-02 | 94° | 97° | 99° | 91° | 102° | 94° | 95° | 91–102° |
| 2d · 2026-09-03 | 95° | 96° | 98° | 93° | 101° | 94° | 93° | 93–101° |
| 1d · 2026-09-04 | 94° | 96° | 98° | 95° | 103° | 96° | 97° | 94–103° |
| actual | 97° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Atlanta — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the ATL observations. The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.