Was the forecast right for Atlanta on Fri Sep 4?
Atlanta, Georgia · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the ATL observations
14 days out, 4 models put Atlanta's Fri Sep 4 high anywhere from 81° to 104°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 93°. The day verified at 95° against the ATL observations — drizzle.
AIGFS landed closest, off by 0.9°. GEM ran 4° cool.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Fri Sep 4 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Atlanta scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14d · 2026-08-21 | 94° | 81° | 96° | — | 104° | — | — | 81–104° |
| 13d · 2026-08-22 | 94° | 85° | 93° | — | 95° | — | — | 85–95° |
| 12d · 2026-08-23 | 96° | 94° | 95° | — | 89° | — | — | 89–96° |
| 11d · 2026-08-24 | 92° | 88° | 96° | — | 98° | — | — | 88–98° |
| 10d · 2026-08-25 | 90° | 94° | 90° | — | 94° | — | — | 90–94° |
| 9d · 2026-08-26 | 91° | 90° | 95° | 92° | 104° | — | — | 90–104° |
| 8d · 2026-08-27 | 90° | 94° | 92° | 93° | 106° | — | — | 90–106° |
| 7d · 2026-08-28 | 87° | 94° | 98° | 95° | 102° | — | — | 87–102° |
| 6d · 2026-08-29 | 83° | 93° | 100° | 94° | 101° | 97° | 91° | 83–101° |
| 5d · 2026-08-30 | 86° | 94° | 92° | 87° | 93° | 92° | 92° | 86–94° |
| 4d · 2026-08-31 | 91° | 91° | 98° | 92° | 94° | 90° | 85° | 85–98° |
| 3d · 2026-09-01 | 91° | 94° | 96° | 92° | 98° | 92° | 91° | 91–98° |
| 2d · 2026-09-02 | 93° | 94° | 95° | 91° | 98° | 94° | 92° | 91–98° |
| 1d · 2026-09-03 | 93° | 94° | 94° | 91° | 98° | 93° | 93° | 91–98° |
| actual | 95° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Atlanta — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the ATL observations. The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.