Was the forecast right for Atlanta on Thu Sep 3?
Atlanta, Georgia · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the ATL observations
13 days out, 4 models put Atlanta's Thu Sep 3 high anywhere from 91° to 102°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 94°. The day verified at 96° against the ATL observations — drizzle.
AIGFS landed closest, off by 0.1°. GFS ran 4° warm.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Thu Sep 3 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Atlanta scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13d · 2026-08-21 | 92° | 91° | 96° | — | 102° | — | — | 91–102° |
| 12d · 2026-08-22 | 94° | 85° | 89° | — | 97° | — | — | 85–97° |
| 11d · 2026-08-23 | 95° | 93° | 94° | — | 97° | — | — | 93–97° |
| 10d · 2026-08-24 | 92° | 86° | 96° | — | 98° | — | — | 86–98° |
| 9d · 2026-08-25 | 89° | 94° | 89° | 86° | 99° | — | — | 86–99° |
| 8d · 2026-08-26 | 88° | 89° | 95° | 93° | 100° | — | — | 88–100° |
| 7d · 2026-08-27 | 88° | 92° | 96° | 92° | 102° | — | — | 88–102° |
| 6d · 2026-08-28 | 90° | 93° | 95° | 92° | 100° | 95° | 90° | 90–100° |
| 5d · 2026-08-29 | 89° | 93° | 96° | 90° | 98° | 96° | 87° | 87–98° |
| 4d · 2026-08-30 | 91° | 93° | 94° | 92° | 97° | 96° | 87° | 87–97° |
| 3d · 2026-08-31 | 93° | 92° | 97° | 93° | 97° | 95° | 93° | 92–97° |
| 2d · 2026-09-01 | 93° | 94° | 96° | 95° | 99° | 94° | 95° | 93–99° |
| 1d · 2026-09-02 | 93° | 96° | 94° | 94° | 100° | 94° | 94° | 93–100° |
| actual | 96° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Atlanta — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the ATL observations. The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.