The Spread

Was the forecast right for Atlanta on Wed Sep 2?

Atlanta, Georgia · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the ATL observations

11 days out, 4 models put Atlanta's Wed Sep 2 high anywhere from 84° to 92°; by the final call the field had settled to a median of 95°. The day verified at 95° against the ATL observations — drizzle.

GEM landed closest, off by 0.1°. GFS ran 3° hot.

11 days out the models said 84–92; it hit 95. GEM led (off 0.1°F); GFS ran 3°F hot.
The shareable card for this receipt — what this page looks like pasted into a thread.

What every model said, at every lead

Daily-high calls for Wed Sep 2 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Atlanta scoreboard shows them, labelled.

Lead AIFSAIGFSECMWFGEMGFSICONUKMO Range
11d · 2026-08-22 87° 88° 84° 92° 84–92°
10d · 2026-08-23 91° 89° 86° 101° 86–101°
9d · 2026-08-24 90° 93° 96° 95° 90–96°
8d · 2026-08-25 90° 92° 95° 87° 96° 87–96°
7d · 2026-08-26 89° 90° 94° 92° 92° 89–94°
6d · 2026-08-27 86° 85° 96° 90° 99° 94° 85–99°
5d · 2026-08-28 91° 87° 93° 90° 101° 94° 91° 87–101°
4d · 2026-08-29 91° 92° 95° 92° 98° 96° 92° 91–98°
3d · 2026-08-30 93° 92° 97° 92° 97° 97° 92° 92–97°
2d · 2026-08-31 94° 93° 97° 92° 100° 96° 94° 92–100°
1d · 2026-09-01 93° 94° 97° 95° 99° 95° 93° 93–99°
0d · 2026-09-02 93° 96° 96° 95° 98° 92° 94° 92–98°
actual 95°

Read it honestly

This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Atlanta — or every city The Spread scores.

Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the ATL observations. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.