Was the forecast right for Atlanta on Tue Sep 1?
Atlanta, Georgia · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the ATL observations
11 days out, 4 models put Atlanta's Tue Sep 1 high anywhere from 88° to 98°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 94°. The day verified at 94° against the ATL observations — drizzle.
ECMWF landed closest, off by 0.3°. UKMO ran 3° cool.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Tue Sep 1 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Atlanta scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11d · 2026-08-21 | 88° | 91° | 92° | — | 98° | — | — | 88–98° |
| 10d · 2026-08-22 | 92° | 87° | 90° | — | 95° | — | — | 87–95° |
| 9d · 2026-08-23 | 91° | 92° | 90° | 88° | 98° | — | — | 88–98° |
| 8d · 2026-08-24 | 89° | 91° | 93° | 88° | 96° | — | — | 88–96° |
| 7d · 2026-08-25 | 89° | 87° | 93° | 90° | 93° | — | — | 87–93° |
| 6d · 2026-08-26 | 87° | 90° | 92° | 90° | 97° | 88° | 90° | 87–97° |
| 5d · 2026-08-27 | 89° | 87° | 92° | 89° | 97° | 90° | 91° | 87–97° |
| 4d · 2026-08-28 | 90° | 92° | 94° | 92° | 95° | 96° | 92° | 90–96° |
| 3d · 2026-08-29 | 92° | 92° | 97° | 90° | 98° | 95° | 91° | 90–98° |
| 2d · 2026-08-30 | 92° | 92° | 96° | 92° | 96° | 95° | 92° | 92–96° |
| 1d · 2026-08-31 | 92° | 94° | 94° | 93° | 97° | 94° | 91° | 91–97° |
| actual | 94° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Atlanta — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the ATL observations. The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.