Was the forecast right for Atlanta on Wed Aug 19?
Atlanta, Georgia · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the ECMWF IFS analysis
14 days out, 4 models put Atlanta's Wed Aug 19 high anywhere from 86° to 100°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 94°. The day verified at 95° against the ECMWF IFS analysis — cloudy.
ECMWF landed closest, off by 0.1°. AIFS ran 6° cool.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Wed Aug 19 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Atlanta scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-08-04 | — | 93° | — | — | 83° | — | — | 83–93° |
| 14d · 2026-08-05 | 94° | 86° | 97° | — | 100° | — | — | 86–100° |
| 13d · 2026-08-06 | 91° | 95° | 84° | — | 99° | — | — | 84–99° |
| 12d · 2026-08-07 | 91° | 97° | 96° | — | 96° | — | — | 91–97° |
| 11d · 2026-08-08 | 92° | 99° | 88° | — | 99° | — | — | 88–99° |
| 10d · 2026-08-09 | 86° | 98° | 100° | — | 102° | — | — | 86–102° |
| 9d · 2026-08-10 | 93° | 95° | 97° | 91° | 102° | — | — | 91–102° |
| 8d · 2026-08-11 | 93° | 94° | 97° | 94° | 102° | — | — | 93–102° |
| 7d · 2026-08-12 | 90° | 95° | 92° | 91° | 101° | — | — | 90–101° |
| 6d · 2026-08-13 | 90° | 95° | 97° | 90° | 101° | 95° | 89° | 89–101° |
| 5d · 2026-08-14 | 90° | 94° | 96° | 90° | 102° | 95° | 96° | 90–102° |
| 4d · 2026-08-15 | 90° | 95° | 98° | 91° | 99° | 97° | 97° | 90–99° |
| 3d · 2026-08-16 | 90° | 94° | 99° | 92° | 98° | 94° | 94° | 90–99° |
| 2d · 2026-08-17 | 90° | 95° | 99° | 90° | 99° | 94° | 95° | 90–99° |
| 1d · 2026-08-18 | 89° | 94° | 95° | 89° | 98° | 94° | 94° | 89–98° |
| actual | 95° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Atlanta — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the ECMWF IFS analysis (temperature_2m_max). The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.