Was the forecast right for Washington on Mon Aug 31?
Washington, District of Columbia · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the DCA observations
11 days out, 4 models put Washington's Mon Aug 31 high anywhere from 75° to 94°; by the final call the field had settled to a median of 89°. The day verified at 87° against the DCA observations — drizzle.
ICON landed closest, off by 0.8°. GFS ran 7° hot.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Mon Aug 31 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Washington scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11d · 2026-08-20 | 89° | 75° | 78° | — | 94° | — | — | 75–94° |
| 10d · 2026-08-21 | 82° | 92° | 88° | — | 93° | — | — | 82–93° |
| 9d · 2026-08-22 | 79° | 78° | 73° | — | 88° | — | — | 73–88° |
| 8d · 2026-08-23 | 92° | 83° | 97° | 91° | 93° | — | — | 83–97° |
| 7d · 2026-08-24 | 91° | 93° | 92° | 94° | 97° | — | — | 91–97° |
| 6d · 2026-08-25 | 93° | 91° | 94° | 92° | 97° | 95° | — | 91–97° |
| 5d · 2026-08-26 | 91° | 93° | 98° | 94° | 91° | 95° | 93° | 91–98° |
| 4d · 2026-08-27 | 91° | 93° | 94° | 92° | 96° | 93° | 91° | 91–96° |
| 3d · 2026-08-28 | 90° | 91° | 93° | 95° | 93° | 87° | 93° | 87–95° |
| 2d · 2026-08-29 | 90° | 90° | 97° | 92° | 94° | 93° | 93° | 90–97° |
| 1d · 2026-08-30 | 91° | 89° | 96° | 91° | 92° | 91° | 91° | 89–96° |
| 0d · 2026-08-31 | 88° | 88° | 92° | 89° | 94° | 88° | 90° | 88–94° |
| actual | 87° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Washington — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the DCA observations. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.