Was the forecast right for Washington on Sun Aug 30?
Washington, District of Columbia · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the DCA observations
10 days out, 4 models put Washington's Sun Aug 30 high anywhere from 75° to 96°; by the final call the field had settled to a median of 90°. The day verified at 89° against the DCA observations, with 0.18 in of precipitation — drizzle.
UKMO landed closest, off by 0.2°. GFS ran 5° hot.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Sun Aug 30 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Washington scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10d · 2026-08-20 | 85° | 75° | 88° | — | 96° | — | — | 75–96° |
| 9d · 2026-08-21 | 80° | 85° | 88° | — | 89° | — | — | 80–89° |
| 8d · 2026-08-22 | 78° | 77° | 84° | 80° | 87° | — | — | 77–87° |
| 7d · 2026-08-23 | 86° | 80° | 92° | 89° | 91° | — | — | 80–92° |
| 6d · 2026-08-24 | 85° | 90° | 87° | 88° | 95° | 91° | — | 85–95° |
| 5d · 2026-08-25 | 87° | 85° | 90° | 86° | 91° | 90° | 89° | 85–91° |
| 4d · 2026-08-26 | 88° | 86° | 90° | 92° | 92° | 88° | 91° | 86–92° |
| 3d · 2026-08-27 | 88° | 89° | 88° | 91° | 93° | 90° | 90° | 88–93° |
| 2d · 2026-08-28 | 88° | 90° | 89° | 91° | 94° | 92° | 88° | 88–94° |
| 1d · 2026-08-29 | 89° | 91° | 92° | 90° | 93° | 90° | 87° | 87–93° |
| 0d · 2026-08-30 | 88° | 90° | 91° | 90° | 94° | 90° | 89° | 88–94° |
| actual | 89° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Washington — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the DCA observations. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.