Was the forecast right for Washington on Sun Aug 16?
Washington, District of Columbia · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the ECMWF IFS analysis
13 days out, 4 models put Washington's Sun Aug 16 high anywhere from 81° to 90°; by the final call the field had settled to a median of 79°. The ECMWF IFS analysis says the day verified at 81° with 0.55 in of precipitation — thunderstorms.
UKMO landed closest, off by 1.0°. AIFS ran 4° cold.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Sun Aug 16 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Washington scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-08-01 | — | 86° | — | — | 96° | — | — | 86–96° |
| 14d · 2026-08-02 | 88° | 86° | — | — | 98° | — | — | 86–98° |
| 13d · 2026-08-03 | 90° | 81° | 83° | — | 82° | — | — | 81–90° |
| 12d · 2026-08-04 | 80° | 78° | 89° | — | 70° | — | — | 70–89° |
| 11d · 2026-08-05 | 78° | 70° | 82° | — | 88° | — | — | 70–88° |
| 10d · 2026-08-06 | 95° | 80° | 83° | — | 88° | — | — | 80–95° |
| 9d · 2026-08-07 | 79° | 79° | 89° | — | 91° | — | — | 79–91° |
| 8d · 2026-08-08 | 78° | 83° | 86° | 84° | 86° | — | — | 78–86° |
| 7d · 2026-08-09 | 76° | 90° | 90° | 80° | 80° | — | — | 76–90° |
| 6d · 2026-08-10 | 81° | 78° | 95° | 84° | 95° | 88° | — | 78–95° |
| 5d · 2026-08-11 | 78° | 84° | 84° | 84° | 91° | 97° | 80° | 78–97° |
| 4d · 2026-08-12 | 88° | 89° | 85° | 80° | 97° | 94° | 91° | 80–97° |
| 3d · 2026-08-13 | 82° | 84° | 89° | 84° | 96° | 93° | 94° | 82–96° |
| 2d · 2026-08-14 | 80° | 76° | 87° | 86° | 86° | 87° | 94° | 76–94° |
| 1d · 2026-08-15 | 78° | 77° | 78° | 83° | 81° | 79° | 82° | 77–83° |
| 0d · 2026-08-16 | 77° | 80° | 79° | 80° | 79° | 79° | 82° | 77–82° |
| actual | 81° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Washington — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the ECMWF IFS analysis (temperature_2m_max). Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.