Was the forecast right for Washington on Sat Aug 15?
Washington, District of Columbia · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the ECMWF IFS analysis
13 days out, 4 models put Washington's Sat Aug 15 high anywhere from 83° to 101°; by the final call the field had settled to a median of 89°. The ECMWF IFS analysis says the day verified at 89° — cloudy.
AIFS landed closest, off by 0.4°. GEM ran 3° hot.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Sat Aug 15 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Washington scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-07-31 | — | 82° | — | — | 89° | — | — | 82–89° |
| 14d · 2026-08-01 | 85° | 82° | — | — | 91° | — | — | 82–91° |
| 13d · 2026-08-02 | 87° | 83° | 90° | — | 101° | — | — | 83–101° |
| 12d · 2026-08-03 | 88° | 84° | 87° | — | 78° | — | — | 78–88° |
| 11d · 2026-08-04 | 83° | 83° | 84° | — | 82° | — | — | 82–84° |
| 10d · 2026-08-05 | 81° | 83° | 86° | — | 76° | — | — | 76–86° |
| 9d · 2026-08-06 | 88° | 81° | 81° | — | 92° | — | — | 81–92° |
| 8d · 2026-08-07 | 87° | 82° | 92° | 73° | 90° | — | — | 73–92° |
| 7d · 2026-08-08 | 83° | 81° | 85° | 84° | 84° | — | — | 81–85° |
| 6d · 2026-08-09 | 84° | 82° | 86° | 80° | 82° | 76° | — | 76–86° |
| 5d · 2026-08-10 | 83° | 81° | 83° | 81° | 88° | 81° | 88° | 81–88° |
| 4d · 2026-08-11 | 85° | 84° | 81° | 81° | 87° | 91° | 84° | 81–91° |
| 3d · 2026-08-12 | 89° | 75° | 88° | 81° | 92° | 84° | 88° | 75–92° |
| 2d · 2026-08-13 | 88° | 84° | 88° | 83° | 85° | 79° | 86° | 79–88° |
| 1d · 2026-08-14 | 88° | 86° | 92° | 92° | 88° | 90° | 89° | 86–92° |
| 0d · 2026-08-15 | 89° | 87° | 89° | 92° | 89° | 90° | 86° | 86–92° |
| actual | 89° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Washington — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the ECMWF IFS analysis (temperature_2m_max). Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.