Was the forecast right for Washington on Fri Aug 14?
Washington, District of Columbia · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the ECMWF IFS analysis
13 days out, 4 models put Washington's Fri Aug 14 high anywhere from 75° to 92°; by the final call the field had settled to a median of 87°. The ECMWF IFS analysis says the day verified at 79° with 0.53 in of precipitation — thunderstorms.
ICON landed closest, off by 3.7°. UKMO ran 10° hot.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Fri Aug 14 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Washington scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-07-30 | — | 82° | — | — | 69° | — | — | 69–82° |
| 14d · 2026-07-31 | 94° | 84° | — | — | 104° | — | — | 84–104° |
| 13d · 2026-08-01 | 85° | 75° | 88° | — | 92° | — | — | 75–92° |
| 12d · 2026-08-02 | 85° | 76° | 93° | — | 98° | — | — | 76–98° |
| 11d · 2026-08-03 | 86° | 94° | 81° | — | 80° | — | — | 80–94° |
| 10d · 2026-08-04 | 85° | 89° | 80° | — | 79° | — | — | 79–89° |
| 9d · 2026-08-05 | 85° | 81° | 92° | — | 90° | — | — | 81–92° |
| 8d · 2026-08-06 | 83° | 89° | 87° | 84° | 89° | — | — | 83–89° |
| 7d · 2026-08-07 | 88° | 84° | 88° | 82° | 87° | — | — | 82–88° |
| 6d · 2026-08-08 | 87° | 83° | 86° | 79° | 83° | 87° | — | 79–87° |
| 5d · 2026-08-09 | 88° | 80° | 88° | 83° | 76° | 84° | 88° | 76–88° |
| 4d · 2026-08-10 | 90° | 81° | 80° | 82° | 89° | 91° | 87° | 80–91° |
| 3d · 2026-08-11 | 84° | 88° | 79° | 79° | 91° | 86° | 88° | 79–91° |
| 2d · 2026-08-12 | 91° | 86° | 78° | 84° | 91° | 80° | 89° | 78–91° |
| 1d · 2026-08-13 | 85° | 81° | 87° | 93° | 83° | 88° | 84° | 81–93° |
| 0d · 2026-08-14 | 84° | 84° | 87° | 88° | 88° | 83° | 89° | 83–89° |
| actual | 79° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Washington — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the ECMWF IFS analysis (temperature_2m_max). Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.