Was the forecast right for Washington on Mon Aug 10?
Washington, District of Columbia · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against ERA5
13 days out, 4 models put Washington's Mon Aug 10 high anywhere from 90° to 105°; by the final call the field had settled to a median of 95°. ERA5 says the day verified at 90° with 0.34 in of precipitation — rain.
ICON landed closest, off by 3.5°. GEM ran 9° hot.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Mon Aug 10 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Washington scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14d · 2026-07-27 | 80° | 81° | — | — | 97° | — | — | 80–97° |
| 13d · 2026-07-28 | 90° | 91° | 90° | — | 105° | — | — | 90–105° |
| 12d · 2026-07-29 | 89° | 84° | 90° | — | 95° | — | — | 84–95° |
| 11d · 2026-07-30 | 88° | 92° | 97° | — | 94° | — | — | 88–97° |
| 10d · 2026-07-31 | 93° | 87° | 92° | — | 92° | — | — | 87–93° |
| 9d · 2026-08-01 | 92° | 90° | 89° | — | 95° | — | — | 89–95° |
| 8d · 2026-08-02 | 92° | 90° | 89° | 88° | 98° | — | — | 88–98° |
| 7d · 2026-08-03 | 94° | 93° | 90° | 90° | 94° | — | — | 90–94° |
| 6d · 2026-08-04 | 94° | 93° | 90° | 90° | 99° | 100° | — | 90–100° |
| 5d · 2026-08-05 | 95° | 93° | 93° | 92° | 98° | 96° | 97° | 92–98° |
| 4d · 2026-08-06 | 95° | 94° | 94° | 91° | 97° | 97° | 94° | 91–97° |
| 3d · 2026-08-07 | 94° | 92° | 96° | 93° | 96° | 95° | 95° | 92–96° |
| 2d · 2026-08-08 | 94° | 95° | 91° | 95° | 96° | 97° | 97° | 91–97° |
| 1d · 2026-08-09 | 93° | 94° | 97° | 101° | 98° | 97° | 98° | 93–101° |
| 0d · 2026-08-10 | 93° | 94° | 97° | 99° | 97° | 93° | 95° | 93–99° |
| actual | 90° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Washington — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is ERA5 reanalysis (temperature_2m_max). Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.