Was the forecast right for St. Louis on Sun Aug 30?

St. Louis, Missouri · daily high temperature in °C · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the STL observations

5 days out, 7 models put St. Louis's Sun Aug 30 high anywhere from 31° to 38°; by the final call the field had settled to a median of 35°. The day verified at 36° against the STL observations — cloudy.

AIGFS landed closest, off by 0.6°. AIFS ran 2° cold.

5 days out the models said 31–38; it hit 36. AIGFS led (off 0.6°C); AIFS ran 2°C cold. — The shareable card for this receipt — what this page looks like pasted into a thread.

What every model said, at every lead

Daily-high calls for Sun Aug 30 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the St. Louis scoreboard shows them, labelled.

Lead	AIFS	AIGFS	ECMWF	GEM	GFS	ICON	UKMO	Range
5d · 2026-08-25	32°	32°	33°	31°	38°	32°	34°	31–38°
4d · 2026-08-26	33°	33°	35°	33°	38°	34°	33°	33–38°
3d · 2026-08-27	34°	33°	35°	32°	38°	33°	33°	32–38°
2d · 2026-08-28	33°	33°	35°	33°	39°	35°	34°	33–39°
1d · 2026-08-29	33°	33°	35°	36°	37°	35°	34°	33–37°
0d · 2026-08-30	33°	35°	34°	36°	37°	35°	34°	33–37°
actual								36°

Read it honestly

This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in St. Louis — or every city The Spread scores.

Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the STL observations. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.