The Spread

Was the forecast right for Seattle on Sun Aug 30?

Seattle, Washington · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the SEA observations

7 days out, 5 models put Seattle's Sun Aug 30 high anywhere from 63° to 70°; by the final call the field had settled to a median of 69°. The day verified at 71° against the SEA observations — cloudy.

UKMO landed closest, off by 0.1°. AIFS ran 4° cold.

7 days out the models said 63–70; it hit 71. UKMO led (off 0.1°F); AIFS ran 4°F cold.
The shareable card for this receipt — what this page looks like pasted into a thread.

What every model said, at every lead

Daily-high calls for Sun Aug 30 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Seattle scoreboard shows them, labelled.

Lead AIFSAIGFSECMWFGEMGFSICONUKMO Range
7d · 2026-08-23 69° 63° 70° 68° 70° 63–70°
6d · 2026-08-24 71° 76° 68° 70° 77° 71° 73° 68–77°
5d · 2026-08-25 69° 75° 70° 68° 79° 74° 74° 68–79°
4d · 2026-08-26 69° 67° 67° 68° 68° 71° 74° 67–74°
3d · 2026-08-27 68° 70° 67° 66° 66° 68° 71° 66–71°
2d · 2026-08-28 68° 68° 68° 67° 73° 68° 69° 67–73°
1d · 2026-08-29 67° 69° 67° 72° 71° 66° 71° 66–72°
0d · 2026-08-30 67° 69° 68° 72° 72° 67° 71° 67–72°
actual 71°

Read it honestly

This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Seattle — or every city The Spread scores.

Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the SEA observations. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.