The Spread

Was the forecast right for Seattle on Sat Aug 29?

Seattle, Washington · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the SEA observations

6 days out, 7 models put Seattle's Sat Aug 29 high anywhere from 64° to 73°; by the final call the field had settled to a median of 67°. The day verified at 71° against the SEA observations, with 0.56 in of precipitation — showers.

GFS landed closest, off by 0.4°. AIGFS ran 7° cold.

6 days out the models said 64–73; it hit 71. GFS led (off 0.4°F); AIGFS ran 7°F cold.
The shareable card for this receipt — what this page looks like pasted into a thread.

What every model said, at every lead

Daily-high calls for Sat Aug 29 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Seattle scoreboard shows them, labelled.

Lead AIFSAIGFSECMWFGEMGFSICONUKMO Range
6d · 2026-08-23 64° 64° 70° 67° 71° 71° 73° 64–73°
5d · 2026-08-24 68° 67° 67° 67° 72° 69° 70° 67–72°
4d · 2026-08-25 66° 67° 71° 64° 72° 70° 69° 64–72°
3d · 2026-08-26 64° 62° 69° 68° 71° 68° 72° 62–72°
2d · 2026-08-27 64° 64° 67° 66° 70° 68° 69° 64–70°
1d · 2026-08-28 65° 62° 70° 68° 71° 68° 70° 62–71°
0d · 2026-08-29 64° 64° 68° 67° 71° 66° 70° 64–71°
actual 71°

Read it honestly

This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Seattle — or every city The Spread scores.

Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the SEA observations. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.