Was the forecast right for Seattle on Fri Aug 14?
Seattle, Washington · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the ECMWF IFS analysis
14 days out, 4 models put Seattle's Fri Aug 14 high anywhere from 76° to 80°; by the final call the field had settled to a median of 79°. The ECMWF IFS analysis says the day verified at 80° — cloudy.
UKMO landed closest, off by 0.4°. AIFS ran 6° cold.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Fri Aug 14 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Seattle scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-07-30 | — | 77° | — | — | 77° | — | — | 77–77° |
| 14d · 2026-07-31 | 76° | 76° | 80° | — | 76° | — | — | 76–80° |
| 13d · 2026-08-01 | 78° | 83° | 75° | — | 79° | — | — | 75–83° |
| 12d · 2026-08-02 | 76° | 93° | 72° | — | 72° | — | — | 72–93° |
| 11d · 2026-08-03 | 71° | 89° | 78° | — | 74° | — | — | 71–89° |
| 10d · 2026-08-04 | 74° | 94° | 84° | — | 78° | — | — | 74–94° |
| 9d · 2026-08-05 | 78° | 78° | 84° | 68° | 76° | — | — | 68–84° |
| 8d · 2026-08-06 | 82° | 73° | 86° | 80° | 84° | — | — | 73–86° |
| 7d · 2026-08-07 | 80° | 79° | 85° | 75° | 85° | — | — | 75–85° |
| 6d · 2026-08-08 | 76° | 78° | 85° | 79° | 83° | 85° | 83° | 76–85° |
| 5d · 2026-08-09 | 75° | 80° | 83° | 78° | 92° | 79° | 84° | 75–92° |
| 4d · 2026-08-10 | 72° | 80° | 83° | 80° | 87° | 78° | 81° | 72–87° |
| 3d · 2026-08-11 | 73° | 82° | 82° | 76° | 88° | 80° | 80° | 73–88° |
| 2d · 2026-08-12 | 74° | 82° | 82° | 76° | 87° | 80° | 81° | 74–87° |
| 1d · 2026-08-13 | 74° | 83° | 81° | 81° | 80° | 79° | 82° | 74–83° |
| 0d · 2026-08-14 | 74° | 84° | 81° | 79° | 76° | 77° | 80° | 74–84° |
| actual | 80° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Seattle — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the ECMWF IFS analysis (temperature_2m_max). Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.