Was the forecast right for Seattle on Thu Aug 13?
Seattle, Washington · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against ERA5
14 days out, 4 models put Seattle's Thu Aug 13 high anywhere from 66° to 77°; by the final call the field had settled to a median of 79°. ERA5 says the day verified at 80° — cloudy.
ECMWF landed closest, off by 0.3°. AIGFS ran 5° hot.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Thu Aug 13 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Seattle scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-07-29 | — | 84° | — | — | 84° | — | — | 84–84° |
| 14d · 2026-07-30 | 66° | 77° | 77° | — | 74° | — | — | 66–77° |
| 13d · 2026-07-31 | 80° | 71° | 77° | — | 75° | — | — | 71–80° |
| 12d · 2026-08-01 | 73° | 90° | 81° | — | 85° | — | — | 73–90° |
| 11d · 2026-08-02 | 72° | 90° | 73° | — | 79° | — | — | 72–90° |
| 10d · 2026-08-03 | 70° | 80° | 74° | — | 83° | — | — | 70–83° |
| 9d · 2026-08-04 | 72° | 87° | 85° | 79° | 88° | — | — | 72–88° |
| 8d · 2026-08-05 | 72° | 75° | 80° | 72° | 72° | — | — | 72–80° |
| 7d · 2026-08-06 | 81° | 73° | 83° | 76° | 77° | — | — | 73–83° |
| 6d · 2026-08-07 | 80° | 75° | 82° | 76° | 77° | 71° | 78° | 71–82° |
| 5d · 2026-08-08 | 77° | 74° | 80° | 75° | 80° | 78° | 79° | 74–80° |
| 4d · 2026-08-09 | 77° | 82° | 78° | 75° | 83° | 78° | 79° | 75–83° |
| 3d · 2026-08-10 | 76° | 82° | 78° | 74° | 84° | 77° | 79° | 74–84° |
| 2d · 2026-08-11 | 77° | 84° | 80° | 74° | 83° | 77° | 80° | 74–84° |
| 1d · 2026-08-12 | 77° | 84° | 81° | 82° | 81° | 78° | 82° | 77–84° |
| 0d · 2026-08-13 | 76° | 85° | 80° | 79° | 76° | 77° | 80° | 76–85° |
| actual | 80° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Seattle — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is ERA5 reanalysis (temperature_2m_max). Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.