Was the forecast right for Seattle on Mon Aug 10?
Seattle, Washington · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against ERA5
14 days out, 4 models put Seattle's Mon Aug 10 high anywhere from 76° to 78°; by the final call the field had settled to a median of 74°. ERA5 says the day verified at 75° — cloudy.
GEM landed closest, off by 0.4°. GFS ran 5° cold.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Mon Aug 10 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Seattle scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-07-26 | — | 81° | — | — | 80° | — | — | 80–81° |
| 14d · 2026-07-27 | 78° | 78° | 78° | — | 76° | — | — | 76–78° |
| 13d · 2026-07-28 | 67° | 66° | 70° | — | 72° | — | — | 66–72° |
| 12d · 2026-07-29 | 80° | 75° | 81° | — | 90° | — | — | 75–90° |
| 11d · 2026-07-30 | 72° | 98° | 82° | — | 81° | — | — | 72–98° |
| 10d · 2026-07-31 | 75° | 75° | 79° | — | 80° | — | — | 75–80° |
| 9d · 2026-08-01 | 77° | 83° | 75° | 78° | 75° | — | — | 75–83° |
| 8d · 2026-08-02 | 71° | 80° | 72° | 76° | 78° | — | — | 71–80° |
| 7d · 2026-08-03 | 79° | 84° | 77° | 75° | 82° | — | — | 75–84° |
| 6d · 2026-08-04 | 78° | 82° | 76° | 76° | 85° | 77° | 79° | 76–85° |
| 5d · 2026-08-05 | 73° | 85° | 77° | 75° | 86° | 74° | 78° | 73–86° |
| 4d · 2026-08-06 | 74° | 84° | 79° | 74° | 84° | 77° | 78° | 74–84° |
| 3d · 2026-08-07 | 73° | 81° | 78° | 74° | 82° | 74° | 77° | 73–82° |
| 2d · 2026-08-08 | 74° | 80° | 77° | 73° | 83° | 75° | 77° | 73–83° |
| 1d · 2026-08-09 | 73° | 79° | 76° | 77° | 75° | 75° | 77° | 73–79° |
| 0d · 2026-08-10 | 72° | 75° | 76° | 74° | 69° | 73° | 77° | 69–77° |
| actual | 75° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Seattle — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is ERA5 reanalysis (temperature_2m_max). Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.