Was the forecast right for Seattle on Thu Aug 6?
Seattle, Washington · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against ERA5
14 days out, 4 models put Seattle's Thu Aug 6 high anywhere from 66° to 79°; by the final call the field had settled to a median of 83°. ERA5 says the day verified at 85° — partly cloudy.
ECMWF landed closest, off by 0.3°. AIGFS ran 5° hot.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Thu Aug 6 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Seattle scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-07-22 | — | 80° | — | — | 83° | — | — | 80–83° |
| 14d · 2026-07-23 | 66° | 76° | 75° | — | 79° | — | — | 66–79° |
| 13d · 2026-07-24 | 78° | 72° | 93° | — | 72° | — | — | 72–93° |
| 12d · 2026-07-25 | 74° | 70° | 74° | — | 86° | — | — | 70–86° |
| 11d · 2026-07-26 | 69° | 88° | 70° | — | 86° | — | — | 69–88° |
| 10d · 2026-07-27 | 72° | 73° | 88° | — | 89° | — | — | 72–89° |
| 9d · 2026-07-28 | 72° | 91° | 70° | 77° | 94° | — | — | 70–94° |
| 8d · 2026-07-29 | 85° | 97° | 73° | 76° | 91° | — | — | 73–97° |
| 7d · 2026-07-30 | 84° | 95° | 84° | 80° | 90° | — | — | 80–95° |
| 6d · 2026-07-31 | 81° | 90° | 80° | 79° | 90° | 77° | 83° | 77–90° |
| 5d · 2026-08-01 | 86° | 94° | 92° | 81° | 92° | 78° | 87° | 78–94° |
| 4d · 2026-08-02 | 85° | 94° | 93° | 83° | 96° | 84° | 85° | 83–96° |
| 3d · 2026-08-03 | 85° | 92° | 88° | 80° | 94° | 84° | 88° | 80–94° |
| 2d · 2026-08-04 | 84° | 92° | 87° | 78° | 95° | 84° | 86° | 78–95° |
| 1d · 2026-08-05 | 82° | 91° | 86° | 84° | 85° | 82° | 86° | 82–91° |
| 0d · 2026-08-06 | 80° | 90° | 85° | 82° | 83° | 80° | 83° | 80–90° |
| actual | 85° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Seattle — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is ERA5 reanalysis (temperature_2m_max). Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.