Was the forecast right for Seattle on Tue Aug 4?
Seattle, Washington · daily high temperature · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against ERA5
14 days out, 4 models put Seattle's Tue Aug 4 high anywhere from 72° to 87°; by the final call the field had settled to a median of 79°. ERA5 says the day verified at 79° — clear.
AIFS landed closest, off by 0.1°. AIGFS ran 5° hot.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Tue Aug 4 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Seattle scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-07-20 | — | 95° | — | — | 84° | — | — | 84–95° |
| 14d · 2026-07-21 | 77° | 72° | 87° | — | 81° | — | — | 72–87° |
| 13d · 2026-07-22 | 73° | 71° | 76° | — | 79° | — | — | 71–79° |
| 12d · 2026-07-23 | 71° | 88° | 79° | — | 82° | — | — | 71–88° |
| 11d · 2026-07-24 | 80° | 70° | 83° | — | 67° | — | — | 67–83° |
| 10d · 2026-07-25 | 80° | 85° | 83° | — | 83° | — | — | 80–85° |
| 9d · 2026-07-26 | 78° | 82° | 80° | 75° | 81° | — | — | 75–82° |
| 8d · 2026-07-27 | 80° | 91° | 77° | 76° | 82° | — | — | 76–91° |
| 7d · 2026-07-28 | 82° | 88° | 77° | 76° | 83° | — | — | 76–88° |
| 6d · 2026-07-29 | 81° | 86° | 83° | 76° | 83° | 80° | 82° | 76–86° |
| 5d · 2026-07-30 | 80° | 85° | 83° | 76° | 83° | 80° | 83° | 76–85° |
| 4d · 2026-07-31 | 80° | 86° | 82° | 77° | 82° | 80° | 83° | 77–86° |
| 3d · 2026-08-01 | 81° | 86° | 83° | 78° | 83° | 80° | 82° | 78–86° |
| 2d · 2026-08-02 | 81° | 86° | 84° | 76° | 83° | 80° | 83° | 76–86° |
| 1d · 2026-08-03 | 81° | 86° | 82° | 80° | 81° | 79° | 82° | 79–86° |
| 0d · 2026-08-04 | 79° | 84° | 80° | 78° | 76° | 77° | 79° | 76–84° |
| actual | 79° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Seattle — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is ERA5 reanalysis (temperature_2m_max). Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.