Was the forecast right for Seattle on Fri Jul 31?
Seattle, Washington · daily high temperature · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against ERA5
14 days out, 4 models put Seattle's Fri Jul 31 high anywhere from 73° to 92°; by the final call the field had settled to a median of 80°. ERA5 says the day verified at 82° — clear.
ECMWF landed closest, off by 0.2°. AIGFS ran 6° hot.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Fri Jul 31 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Seattle scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14d · 2026-07-17 | 73° | 76° | 73° | — | 92° | — | — | 73–92° |
| 13d · 2026-07-18 | 69° | 79° | 69° | — | 87° | — | — | 69–87° |
| 12d · 2026-07-19 | 74° | 80° | 76° | — | 80° | — | — | 74–80° |
| 11d · 2026-07-20 | 66° | 78° | 80° | — | 78° | — | — | 66–80° |
| 10d · 2026-07-21 | 76° | 82° | 76° | — | 79° | — | — | 76–82° |
| 9d · 2026-07-22 | 75° | 72° | 80° | 78° | 83° | — | — | 72–83° |
| 8d · 2026-07-23 | 74° | 78° | 77° | 75° | 77° | — | — | 74–78° |
| 7d · 2026-07-24 | 76° | 82° | 82° | 75° | 83° | — | — | 75–83° |
| 6d · 2026-07-25 | 76° | 81° | 80° | 76° | 86° | 79° | 80° | 76–86° |
| 5d · 2026-07-26 | 76° | 82° | 78° | 76° | 83° | 80° | 80° | 76–83° |
| 4d · 2026-07-27 | 77° | 85° | 79° | 77° | 87° | 77° | 80° | 77–87° |
| 3d · 2026-07-28 | 78° | 86° | 81° | 74° | 87° | 79° | 80° | 74–87° |
| 2d · 2026-07-29 | 78° | 87° | 80° | 73° | 85° | 79° | 80° | 73–87° |
| 1d · 2026-07-30 | 78° | 87° | 82° | 81° | 79° | 78° | 80° | 78–87° |
| 0d · 2026-07-31 | 78° | 87° | 82° | 80° | 79° | 78° | 81° | 78–87° |
| actual | 82° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Seattle — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is ERA5 reanalysis (temperature_2m_max). Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.