Was the forecast right for Seattle on Mon Jul 20?
Seattle, Washington · daily high temperature · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against ERA5
3 days out, 7 models put Seattle's Mon Jul 20 high anywhere from 75° to 88°; by the final call the field had settled to a median of 79°. ERA5 says the day verified at 79° — cloudy.
GFS landed closest, off by 0.2°. AIGFS ran 4° hot.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Mon Jul 20 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Seattle scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3d · 2026-07-17 | 79° | 85° | 80° | 77° | 88° | 75° | 80° | 75–88° |
| 2d · 2026-07-18 | 79° | 84° | 82° | 72° | 82° | 77° | 81° | 72–84° |
| 1d · 2026-07-19 | 79° | 82° | 82° | 82° | 85° | 76° | 81° | 76–85° |
| 0d · 2026-07-20 | 77° | 83° | 81° | 81° | 79° | 76° | 77° | 76–83° |
| actual | 79° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Seattle — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is ERA5 reanalysis (temperature_2m_max). Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.