Was the forecast right for San Francisco on Thu Aug 27?
San Francisco, California · daily high temperature in °C · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the SFOC1 observations
5 days out, 7 models put San Francisco's Thu Aug 27 high anywhere from 20° to 26°; by the final call the field had settled to a median of 23°. The day verified at 21° against the SFOC1 observations — cloudy.
ECMWF landed closest, off by 0.2°. AIGFS ran 4° hot.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Thu Aug 27 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the San Francisco scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5d · 2026-08-22 | 22° | 26° | 21° | 20° | 22° | 20° | 21° | 20–26° |
| 4d · 2026-08-23 | 22° | 26° | 20° | 21° | 20° | 20° | 23° | 20–26° |
| 3d · 2026-08-24 | 23° | 25° | 22° | 21° | 22° | 21° | 27° | 21–27° |
| 2d · 2026-08-25 | 24° | 26° | 23° | 22° | 23° | 20° | 21° | 20–26° |
| 1d · 2026-08-26 | 23° | 26° | 22° | 19° | 22° | 20° | 23° | 19–26° |
| 0d · 2026-08-27 | 23° | 25° | 21° | 20° | 23° | 20° | 23° | 20–25° |
| actual | 21° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in San Francisco — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the SFOC1 observations. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.